Straw Polls and REAL Polls

So, the Democrats are squabbling over the polls.

Roy Herron has won BOTH straw polls to date -- in Rutherford County and in Sullivan County. By solid margins. This could be a sign of solid organization, good groundwork, and a compelling stump speech. It definitely means Herron should be taken very seriously.

Jim Kyle claims the Sullivan County event was solid, but slightly attended, so the results could be discounted.

On the other hand, Mike McWherter released a statewide poll showing him with 26% of the Democratic primary vote while all other candidates were at less than 6%. A VERY solid starting point for McWherter. To be expected in light of the name recognition he enjoys because of his Dad, former Governor and state House Speaker Ned Ray McWherter. Plus, Mike's been out making the rounds.

So, if you look at Straw Polls and REAL polls, you see good news for two candidates in the Democratic field. Will Herron's organizational strength help him in the long-term? Can he overcome the name ID enjoyed by McWherter? Will another Democratic candidate (Jim Kyle) be able to translate a solid base in Memphis into a first place primary finish?

Right now, the good news and momentum is with Herron. But the lead seems to be McWherter's to lose.